A Sireific Analysis: Rachel's 2019 Kentucky Derby Picks

A beautiful day, a bored kid and a sidewalk. Enter chalk. Sometimes it helps to just do the things with your kids even if you are seriously not in the mood to do so.

She's Likely in the Money

Here's what is new for 2019:  I have spent a lot less time spent than I gave last year trying to look at the Derby outcome. I had to remind myself of my record (I'm a seasonal fan)

2014:  1 of 3 horses in the money
2015:  1 of 3 horses in the money
2016:  Complete fail.
2017:  3 of 3 horses in the money, wrong order 
2018:  2 of 3 in the money

So I'm shifting my self-title away from "Rachel the Greek" to "She's Likely in the Money" given my record (except for 2016- all sorts of ditch went down that year!).

Sireific Analysis:  Interesting Prospects

I can't get Justify's amazing 2018 Triple Crown out of my head and the collective joy it was to see him- as if a whisper of Secretariat--giant, devoring strides, super focused running style, and flaming red chestnut.

Scat Daddy was Justify's sire so we'll start with him:

Scat Daddy He died in 2015, just 11 years old, but did sire Justify before he went.
-  Scat Daddy's child? anothertwistafate who is...NOT running! (This blog post just.keeps.changing)

Danzig,  lived to age 29!
- Danzig's progeny:  Omaha Beach (another big, beautiful runner- hope he gets better soon!) and War of Will

AP Indy Going strong at 30 and a son of Seattle Slew.
- AP Indy plays into the bloodlines for Game Winner, Improbable and Long Range Toddy

Tap It. He's gone from grey to an old beautiful white man.
- Tap It's son is Tacitus. Watch this thrilling 2004 come from behind Tap It ran.

Longshot Winners & Winning Factors

I loved the old Wild West days of the Derby--you know before the points system came into being.
Here is a sample of the old days:  2009 when Mine that Bird shot from last to first but thrusting through on the rail.

• Mind you the points system drives whether a horse is eligible to run in the Derby. 
• If they can get into the race, another factor is what post position they draw. Here's a nice history of number of winners from which starting position since 1930. 

Equine Candy 

(Well, what do you look at on the web?)

Before I give you my predictions, let's have a little viewing.

What a beauty Tacitus is- typically the greys don't have the stamina to win, but he comes from the line of them that do:

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire

Behind the Racing Curtain:  Stories of the People

I'll interrupt the horse leering here to share something cool that seems a first this year from America's Best Racing:  a portrait of a groom- a Latina woman- yay! Meet Marisol. Several stories here about women in racing, and the people behind the scenes. More like that please.

Next up- Long Range Toddy:  so dark a bay he comes across as a black horse in photos. I just think he's going to be a thing. Back up to Seattle Slew on one side and Storm Cat on the other. Yeah, it's like that.

Photo from Blood Horse

Here's another intriguing one but I'm not sure whether to include him in my prediction:  Maximum Security. Shit for a name, but he may be a threat. Big old bay with black stockings---sweet!

Photo:  KentuckyDerby.com and Adam Coglianese.

Rachel's Predictions

Hey you can't just get predictions and move on. I'm not great at the order but with today's weather, here's what I think will happen should the track be gushy (59% chance of it at post time is predicted):

Long Range Toddy - 2nd maybe; stretch drive surpriser
Maximum Security- 3rd
Code of Honor - 4th
Improbable- 1st

I think what I will enjoy most this year...is being completley wrong! We'll see.