🏇 It's Roses Time...

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It's that time of year again! Roses, horses, Kentucky pomp and circumstance (which needs a cultural makeover). Can I continue my self-appointed "Rachel the Greek" streak for the 3rd year? Will I keep my reputation or get smacked in the face with wet reality of defeat?

My challenge? Name any horse running in the Derby who will be in the money (win, place or show). Any of my choices anywhere in the money. Order doesn't matter.

Rules:
- No money is ever betted
- No other rules to speak of but yes, I could publish and update (fickle change of mind) tomorrow AM.

Gains:
-  My annual fun
- All those years scouring horse bloodlines as a kid pay off decades later...and I do mean, decades!

My Record

2014 in the money, with a smack from California Chrome
2015 in the money again, though I didn't know it was the year the Pharoah would break the Triple Crown drought 

About My Annual Tradition

I don't study this stuff or spend a lot of time. I do watch videos of how the horses move, closely. Maybe throw in a little numerology for good fun (I've NOT seen this work yet, btw) and then blog about it. I do it by instinct while it's probably a science now.

What would Lady Big Data have to say if she got a chance at contender data? I would vote to bring in stride metrics, weather data for past track performance dates and organ size information too (in light of Secretariat's story). Can you get organ size data for living horses?

Here is a fun geeky piece from last year predicting American Pharoah would end up 4th in the Belmont, courtesy of machine learning predictions.

Most importantly, let's talk shirt artwork. Do you think it's been going downhill over the years? I feel like things were better in the 90s, I don't know. Here's my relic from watching Thunder Gulch win.



Here are/were my leanings this year as I watched the field develop:

• Songbird. I spotted this unbeaten filly weeks ago and got my hopes up but then had to fall back on a position of deep respect and gratitude to her owners. With a birthday of April 30th, she's far too young to run in the Derby- thank you for not risking her injury to run her too soon! And she's out for the Kentucky Oaks, too. Great. Let's raise the age of Derby runners.

• Whitmore. I thought weeks ago that he'd be a contender. His pedigree goes back to Pleasant Colony, my first Derby watch as a child. I've now changed my mind.

• Creator. He pinged my guts way back and won the AR Derby, but it's going to be hot and the greys- sorry, they just can't take the heat. It's a stereotype I believe is accurate that just a few horses were the exception to (Seattle Slew). If there is some wind though, he may re-appear.

• Majesto. He's BIG! He's got a stride for the Belmont Stakes, I tell ya! Not in the money now but he'll do distance just fine and may be closing too far too late tomorrow.

• Outwork. This is one to watch if he can find a clear space to run!

About Those Greys
So many this year! Mohaymen, Lani (Japanese horse), Creator, Destin (Storm Cat line)


My Picks (to maintain my year over year reputation or knot...heh)

1st: Outwork (within 2 lengths)
2nd: Suddenbreakingnews unless there is wind, then expect Creator instead!
3rd:  Creator
4th:  Gun Runner

What my Numbers Say

• It could be Exaggerator's big day...but I don't believe it. He's little and will get trapped on the journey.